Apple (AAPL), the world’s most valuable tech company, faces significant challenges as it gears up for the launch of its fiscal fourth-quarter report. With the company’s success closely tied to the performance of its iPhone lineup, particularly the latest models, the health of the new iPhone cycle is a pressing concern. As Apple seeks to establish a foothold in the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) market, the current data suggests that the iPhone 16 family may not be selling as well as anticipated.
Recent data points, including shorter shipping times and earnings reports from major wireless carriers, have raised red flags regarding consumer interest in the iPhone 16. Brandon Nispel from KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded Apple’s stock to a sell rating, citing information from AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile that indicates wireless upgrade rates in the U.S. dropped by 9% year-over-year in the third quarter. Nispel noted, “We think the data suggests a slow upgrade path,” emphasizing the challenges Apple faces in convincing customers to upgrade their devices.
Compounding the situation is the phased rollout of Apple’s first generative AI service, which further complicates the adoption of the new iPhone models. Apple Intelligence was launched on Monday, more than a month after the iPhone 16 began shipping. This gradual introduction of AI features throughout the next year could slow down the typical upgrade cycle for the iPhone 16, as noted by Krish Sankar of TD Cowen. He remarked in a client note that the gradual rollout of AI capabilities could hinder a more pronounced upgrade cycle.
These concerns have had a notable impact on Apple’s stock performance, which has risen less than 5% since the iPhone 16 launch event in early September. This increase is notably lower than the gains seen by other major technology companies and the broader S&P 500 index during the same period.
Historically, Apple has navigated through sluggish iPhone cycles, primarily due to the maturation of its business model and the increasing time consumers are waiting between upgrades. However, the hardware-centric nature of Apple’s business model means that its devices are essential for accessing its generative AI services, with the iPhone being the most crucial among them. Customers need to be willing to pay a premium for these devices; only the iPhone 15 and 16 models are compatible with Apple Intelligence, and these models carry an average price tag of just over $1,000, depending on memory configurations.
In contrast, Apple’s competitors can distribute AI features across a broader user base without such high costs. For example, Meta Platforms, Facebook’s parent company, recently launched its Meta AI assistant free of charge in more than a dozen countries, leveraging its extensive base of nearly 3.3 billion daily active users.
As AI capabilities transition from cloud services to “edge” devices like smartphones and PCs, Apple is in a favorable position as a leading manufacturer of such products. However, questions remain about whether current AI smartphones can deliver powerful experiences. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee highlighted some limitations, noting that unlike AI servers, smartphones lack the high-speed memory and advanced packaging technology necessary for rapid data transfer, thereby restricting their AI capabilities. He also downgraded Apple’s shares to hold, cautioning against expecting a rapid smartphone replacement cycle driven by AI advancements.
Despite the recent struggles, Apple’s stock has shown resilience, increasing nearly 36% over the past year, outperforming competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet (Google’s parent company), which have been aggressive in adopting generative AI. Currently, Apple shares are trading at over 31 times projected earnings for the next four quarters, representing a 20% premium compared to the stock’s five-year average, according to data from FactSet.
However, the stock is still vulnerable if the iPhone 16 does not meet sales expectations. The upcoming earnings report will reflect just over a week of sales for the new models, which is typical for this period. Analysts are holding modest but not overly optimistic expectations, with projections indicating that iPhone revenue grew by 3% year-over-year in the September quarter, mirroring the results from the same period last year.
A critical focus will be on what Apple communicates regarding expectations for the quarter ending in December. The company no longer provides specific financial forecasts, but analysts anticipate that iPhone revenue will grow by 5% year-over-year, reaching approximately $73.2 billion, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.
Investors will also be on the lookout for indications that Apple might adjust its production plans. Erik Woodring from Morgan Stanley stated, “To be clear, we have not heard of any iPhone build cuts in our checks, but after a month of tracking iPhone 16 demand indicators, we’d characterize iPhone demand as mixed.” Woodring remains optimistic about Apple’s future, suggesting the company is well-positioned to emerge as a leader in Edge AI over the next 12 months.
Apple may require additional time to solidify this position and validate the market’s expectations regarding its AI initiatives and iPhone sales performance. The success of the iPhone 16 cycle will be pivotal in determining the company’s trajectory in the competitive landscape of technology and AI.